If you’ve heard about the white-collar recession I’ve got some news for you. It has nothing to do with AI. Layoffs. Hiring freezes. AI replacing jobs. Oh my. If you fall in the “white-collar worker” category of executives and managers and even tech professionals, or you run a business that serves them, you’ve probably noticed something is, well, off.

The name they’ve given what we are in right now is known as the white collar recession. According to Forbes, the labor market is experiencing a massive shift, and the white-collar recession is here. It’s happening quietly and without the dramatic factory shutdowns and mass unemployment of past recessions. Instead, it’s a slow burn: Companies are tightening budgets, slashing middle management, and replacing high-paid professionals with automation or offshore talent.

What’s causing this? Who’s to blame? Well, I’m going to join the club and blame Elon. Let’s take a look at what others are saying. Here are three main reasons we are in a white-collar recession.

• Ai & Automation

• Corporate Belt Tightening

• The Tech Bubble

You’ve heard the lie. You’ve heard it so much it’s convinced many of you that it’s real. It’s not. AI in the real world is machine learning. Machine learning consists of computer models that look for patterns in data. I’ve worked at over four different companies over the past two years, and guess what… not a single job was replaced by AI. Here’s what I asked company leaders: Can you tell me what job was taken over by AI? Exactly what role at the company? Chirp, chirp. All the C-levels I spoke to could parrot what they’ve been told, but not one could give me an example where AI replaced a single job. Because right now, there aren’t jobs being taken over by AI.

What about corporate belt tightening then? After years of cheap money and rapid expansion, companies are now slashing costs. First on the chopping block are middle management and any job that doesn’t directly drive revenue. Now we may have something. If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you’d know I've been discussing the decline of the so-called "data science" role. Companies...es hired thousands of academics with little to no real-world skill working with data causing a massive failure across all predictive analytic departments. Gartner has been writing about this for years now. Here’s the number they give for successful data science models deployed in the real-world. That number is 4%. Yes, only 4% of real-world projects resulted in a working model. The real cost of this disaster is probably in the billions.

What about the tech bubble? The massive layoffs at Google, Meta, Amazon, and countless startups? That’s a correction. Many of these companies overhired, assuming endless growth. Now, they’re course-correcting. However, certainly might have something to do with Elon et al finding a ton of fraud.

While there are endless variables that might be contributing to the white collar recession, one thing is sure, Elon’s focus on eliminating waste from the federal government has spilled over to the corporate sector. If you’re the head of a company and you're watching Elon and his kids discover waste at every turn, it’s natural for you to assume that your company must have the waste also. No. Believe it or not, most companies have accounting departments that watch their bottom line fairly closely.

Whatever the reason, we are nearing the end and while it was a bumpy ride, cycles always exist. There’s only one way I know of to become recession proof, choose a career working with data and be better than everyone else.